The September USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is due Friday, Sept. 12. Going into the report, here is what farmers need to know about the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat markets, and what Grain Market Insider will be looking for in the updated balance sheets.
The August WASDE report showed U.S. old-crop corn carryout decreasing by 35 million bushels and old-crop soybean stocks decreasing by 20 million bushels. The new-crop ending stocks estimate for corn increased by 457 million bushels, soybean ending stocks decreased by 20 million bushels, and wheat stocks declined by 21 million bushels.
The September WASDE report will include objective survey data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, including plant population and ears per acre for corn in the 10 largest corn-producing states. It will also consider regional weather variations and rely less on statistical modeling.
Corn Market Expectations
Over the past month, USDA's reported pace of exports has remained firm. Inspections for old-crop corn are 93.5% of the August WASDE estimate, compared with the five-year average 90.3% by this point in the year. USDA's reported sales commitments for the 2025/2026 crop are 25.7% of their current forecast for the crop year, compared with the five-year average 19.3%.
Corn use for ethanol production has slowed in recent weeks and is slightly behind the pace needed to meet the current forecast.
Grain Market Insider does not expect any material change to old-crop ending stocks in the September report. The new-crop corn yield estimate will likely be adjusted lower due to disease pressure and recent dryness. Since 1993, the average downward yield adjustment on the September WASDE report is 2 bushels per acre (bpa). On the demand side, Grain Market Insider expects slightly higher exports and lower feed consumption. Overall, the expectation is for ending stocks to decrease.
Soybean Market Outlook
USDA's export inspections for old-crop soybeans have remained steady and are 1.7% ahead of the five-year average pace needed to meet the August WASDE estimate. Export sales commitments of the 2025/2026 crop continue to lag historical averages, with sales at 15.6% of the current estimate, compared with the five-year average of 28%.
Soybean crush for July was 205 million bushels, up from 197 million in June and up from 191 million the previous year. The pace of soybean crush is slightly behind the pace needed to meet August WASDE estimate for the 2024/2025 crop year.
As with corn, Grain Market Insider does not expect any material adjustment to old-crop ending stocks in the September WASDE report. New-crop production could be adjusted lower due to recent dryness. The average downward yield revision on the September WASDE since 1993 is 1 bpa. There is also the possibility that export demand will be adjusted lower due to the slow pace of commitments. Overall, the expectations is for stocks to be unchanged or slightly lower.
Considerations for the Wheat Market
Since early July, USDA's reported pace of export sales for the 2025/2026 crop year has remained firm. The current sales pace of 50.8% of the August WASDE estimate for the crop year is ahead of the five-year average of 41.8%. Export inspections are also firm at 27.9% of the current estimate compared with the five-year average of 24.7%. Grain Market Insider expects overall production to be close to unchanged and ending stocks to be steady to lower.
