The International Trade Centre published an analysis on August 4 quantifying the damage from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, finding that urea fertilizer exports from Hormuz-dependent economies dropped 83% by volume in April 2026 compared with April 2025. Combined merchandise export volumes across 12 strategically important products fell 54%, with liquefied natural gas recording the steepest contraction at 95%.
The ITC analysis, issued jointly with the WTO and UNCTAD, focused on Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In value terms, total exports from these economies declined 21%, though the agency noted that commodity price spikes triggered by the disruption itself inflate value figures and distort the true picture of physical trade losses.
Alternative suppliers stepped in for some commodities. Exporters outside the Gulf region increased shipments for 10 of the 12 products analyzed. However, these gains fully offset the Hormuz shortfall only for ammonia and polypropylene, suggesting that trade diversion is underway but has not yet replaced disrupted supply for most products, including urea.
Some importing markets were hit harder than others. Japan, which historically sourced 91% of its crude oil from Hormuz-dependent economies, saw total imports drop 64%. The ITC warned that climbing fertilizer prices could hamper agricultural output and raise food costs, particularly in vulnerable nations dependent on imported nutrients.
The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 43% of seaborne urea exports, 44% of seaborne sulfur trade and more than a quarter of global ammonia exports, according to NDSU research. Although a ceasefire in June briefly eased shipping conditions, renewed clashes in July have reignited disruption concerns.
The ITC cautioned that even if hostilities subside, restoring full commercial shipping could take months as insurers reassess war-risk coverage and port scheduling returns to normal.
