It is now the middle of July, looking back at the fertilizer market in the first half of this year, the prices of ammonium phosphate, potash and ammonium chloride have taken a slide all the way; Urea market is also a few struggles up and down, up and down, can be described as thrilling.
Fertilizer factories and traders such as the storage of potash, ammonium phosphate and ammonium chloride, huge losses. Taking Lao potash fertilizer as an example, it has been declining from 3,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2150 yuan/ton at the beginning of July; Ammonium phosphate is also about 3,300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year to about 2,400 yuan/ton in early July, especially ammonium chloride, from about 1,100 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, directly cut in half. During this period, through various channels, policies and data analysis, we have constantly expected to set the bottom of the fertilizer market, and the bottom has been broken repeatedly.
In the later part of the first half of the year, with the spread of bearish sentiment, the auction of phosphate ore has repeatedly failed to auction, phosphate ore factories are constantly exploring the introduction of policies, hoping to stabilize the market and reverse the pessimistic situation, such as phosphate ore enterprises to take warehouse advance, guarantee the bottom of the Federal Reserve co-marketing and other ways to strengthen the closeness with ammonium phosphate enterprises, some companies are announced to compress the capacity of phosphate ore, in order to stabilize the situation. Enterprises in Hubei, Sichuan and Yunnangui, the main production areas of ammonium phosphate, received a lot of orders in early July, basically by the end of August, the production capacity has been sold out, and the export law inspection has also entered the state of orderly release. With the warming of the market atmosphere, the minimum guarantee policy of ammonium phosphate enterprises has also been cancelled, and the price has risen. With the early production of ammonium phosphate enterprises in Hubei, the newly started ammonium phosphate enterprises receive orders if the performance is general, the market may be delicate.
At this stage, the potash fertilizer market is a little quiet, mainly in the summer days, high temperature, high humidity, compound fertilizer enterprises operating rate is low; At the same time, nearly 3 million tons of potash storage at the port, coupled with the approaching of the shipment date of imported potash in the later stage, the continuous force of China-Europe freight trains, border trade and domestic potash fertilizer, it should be said that the supply situation of potash fertilizer is still relatively abundant.
At present, many compound fertilizer enterprises are also actively carrying out autumn sales meetings, communicating with channel providers, introducing policies, maintaining and stabilizing channels, and maintaining the sales volume of compound fertilizer in autumn. At the beginning of July, the order of ammonium chloride progressed rapidly, the production capacity of some enterprises has been sold to mid-to-late August, and the factory price has also risen to about 510 yuan/ton, but after this price, the downstream compound fertilizer factory procurement enthusiasm is greatly reduced. The author believes that the supply of ammonium chloride in autumn will be relatively loose, and the autumn fertilizer is guaranteed. However, it is worth noting that the expansion of the Inner Mongolia alkali plant, it is said that the cost is not high, once it is put into operation, it will have an impact on the soda ash market, thus affecting the supply of ammonium chloride in the joint alkali process enterprises, and interfering with the development of the price trend of ammonium chloride.
In summary, considering that the autumn sales market is the main event in the winter wheat fertilizer region, coupled with low social inventory and the Northeast market may start in September, the author believes that the overall loose state of fertilizer supply this autumn, and there will be a tight balance in individual periods. In order to make the production of compound fertilizer orderly, maintain the stable development of their own sales channels, and ensure the effective supply of autumn fertilizers, it is recommended to carry out moderate cover positions at this stage, after all, blindly waiting for the bottom price, missing the production season and terminal channels, is not the normal state of an enterprise.
