Many countries have just experienced the "hottest April" and agricultural energy industry is struggling to cope with the impact of high temperatures... With extreme weather conditions such as high temperatures deepening the threat to global economic activity recently, industry insiders are calling for strengthened international cooperation to avoid global crises. Global politicians are gathering in Geneva to discuss measures to address extreme climate change.
Expansion of extreme climate losses
At the 19th World Meteorological Conference, which opened in Geneva on the 22nd, the latest statistical report from the World Meteorological Organization showed that between 1970 and 2021, 11778 extreme weather, climate, and water related events were reported worldwide, resulting in over 2 million deaths and economic losses of up to $4.3 trillion.
During this period, over 60% of the total economic losses caused by weather, climate, and water related disasters worldwide were reported by developed economies, with the United States alone accounting for $1.7 trillion in losses, accounting for 39% of the global meteorological disaster economic losses in 51 years. The least developed countries and small island developing States have suffered disproportionately high economic losses relative to their economic scale.
The World Meteorological Organization recently released the "2022 Global Climate Report", which points out that climate change in 2022 is continuing from mountain peaks to deep ocean depths. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves have affected various continents, causing billions of dollars in damage. Despite the cooling effects of the La Ni ñ a event over the past three years, the period from 2015 to 2022 remains the warmest eight years on record, with glacier melting and sea level rise once again reaching record levels in 2022, and this trend will continue.
The Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petri Taras, stated that greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to rise, climate change is also continuing, and people around the world continue to be severely affected by extreme weather and climate events. In 2022, the sustained drought in East Africa, record breaking rainfall in Pakistan, and record breaking heatwaves in Europe affected tens of millions of people, exacerbating food security challenges and causing billions of dollars in losses.
High temperatures continue to threaten economic activity
Climate scientists currently generally predict that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will make a comeback in 2023, bringing hot, dry, and fire prone conditions. Economic activities in Asia and the Americas have already been hit by high temperatures.
Meteorologist warn that temperatures across Asia will break records this year. Climate scholar Wang Jingyu from the National School of Education at Nanyang Polytechnic University in Singapore stated that last month was the "hottest April in Asia". He attributed the high temperature to the upcoming El Ni ñ o phenomenon, which is a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization recently predicted that there is a 80% chance that this climate phenomenon will occur in October this year, with a 60% chance of occurring as early as July.
Several regions in Asia have recently experienced temperatures exceeding 40 ℃ and have issued high temperature warnings. The highest temperature in Luang Prabang, Laos has reached 42.7 ℃, while the temperature in Myanmar has climbed to around 45 ℃. The road surface in the capital of Bangladesh, Dhaka, has melted in the scorching heat, and some local governments in India have closed schools due to the high temperature. In April, the temperature in some parts of Thailand reached as high as 50 ℃.
Climate expert Horton from Nanyang Polytechnic University in Singapore stated that the strong heat wave cannot be explained solely by the El Ni ñ o phenomenon. "Other factors are also having an impact. The Earth is warming, and there is a significant increase in atmospheric moisture. He pointed out that human activities release more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, leading to global warming and exacerbating the climate crisis. Last year, global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise, with temperatures at least 1.1 ℃ higher than before industrialization. Holden said that record breaking high temperatures "disrupted crop production, caused social difficulties, and led to peak energy consumption.
In North and South America, disasters caused by high temperatures are also affecting the energy industry and agriculture. The world's fourth largest crude oil producer, Alberta Province in western Canada, produces about 80% of Canada's oil. This month, many of them have been caught in wildfires, causing some energy companies to suspend operations, resulting in a decrease in Canada's natural gas exports to the United States and pushing up the price of natural gas futures in the United States. The wildfires also forced Alberta to reduce its daily production by at least 319000 barrels of oil, accounting for 3.7% of Canada's total production.
Western Canada originally experienced a cold spring, but recently abnormal high temperatures have rapidly arrived, with some areas experiencing temperatures 10 to 15 degrees Celsius higher than the average temperature at the beginning of this month, creating conditions for wildfires to occur.
The Wall Street Journal article points out that although the El Ni ñ o phenomenon has not yet emerged, once this climate phenomenon shows its power, it can bring severe drought or heavy rainfall, disrupt world food output, and have an impact on commodity prices. Sugar producers in Brazil, grain growers in the United States, and international traders are preparing to cope with the El Ni ñ o phenomenon.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), historically, global non fuel commodity prices have risen by approximately 5.3% in the year following the start of the El Ni ñ o model. As the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific rises, the La Ni ñ a phenomenon shifts to an El Ni ñ o phenomenon, and droughts in some parts of Asia will suppress the production of Indian sugar, Malaysian palm oil, and Australian wheat. In South America, wetter weather can be beneficial for farms or trigger floods, disrupting the harvest season.
Countries strengthen their response to potential disasters
Many countries have begun to take response measures to various disasters caused by high temperatures, and industry experts have also called for further strengthening of international cooperation.
Asian countries are actively addressing concerns about water scarcity in the coming months. The Philippine government stressed the importance of avoiding the potential water crisis caused by El Nino. Thailand has recently issued a warning urging the public to save water, and the National Water Resources Office is also preparing for the drought. At the same time, the Malaysian Air Force has been collaborating with the country's meteorological department to implement artificial rainfall over Penang to supplement the water supply to the dry dams on the island. The Indonesian government issued a warning in February, warning farmers and plantation companies to be vigilant against fires when facing the El Ni ñ o phenomenon on Sumatra Island and Kalimantan. Krishnayati of the Indonesian Farmers Association said: "What irresponsible companies or people who burn land wantonly do may aggravate the impact of El Nino. Farmers must have the wisdom to survive in such difficult times."
In recent weeks, companies from Peru to Singapore have stated that they are preparing to cope with the potential negative or beneficial effects of high temperatures, including the construction of new drainage infrastructure on farms or the monitoring of food supply and demand by a team of analysts. Some speculators are betting on a strong El Ni ñ o phenomenon, which will lead to increased fluctuations in crop prices for human food, livestock feed, and fuel around the world.
The communiqu é of the World Meteorological Conference shows that a high-level dialogue will be held during the conference to discuss accelerating and expanding the scope of action, ensuring that weather warning services reach everyone on Earth by the end of 2027, in order to resist increasingly extreme and dangerous weather and climate change. The conference will also approve the World Meteorological Organization's 2024 to 2027 strategic plan to achieve the goal of all countries being better equipped to cope with extreme weather and environmental events by 2030.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report in April, reminding that climate change will exacerbate the occurrence of extreme weather events. It calls on countries to take in-depth, rapid, and sustained emission reduction actions to slow down the pace of climate change.
