According to a report on the website of French newspaper "Express" on May 9th, since the first few weeks of Ukraine's invasion, all politicians have been pondering the question: Can the European Union not use Russian natural gas? Due to its high dependence on natural gas, the EU has not imposed any official restrictions on it - unlike on oil and coal - but has urged its member states to reduce imports and seek alternative sources of supply. Because Moscow used the gates as retaliation for sanctions: supply to Europe gradually decreased until last summer when the North Stream natural gas pipeline was completely closed. A small amount of natural gas still passes through Ukraine through the "Friendship" pipeline, mainly supplying Hungary and Austria, and liquefied natural gas continues to be transported by oil tankers from Russia.
But the numbers themselves indicate the problem: Russia's monthly share of natural gas shipments to the EU has decreased from over 50% in 2021 to 37% in March 2022, and then dropped to below 13% in November. With the development of renewable energy, the 27 EU countries may permanently abandon natural gas starting from 2028. The report released by Oxford Sustainable Finance Group on the 9th concluded that this will bring ecological (abandoning a fossil energy source), strategic (enhancing energy autonomy), and economic benefits: 90% of investment costs can be recovered within 30 years.
In order to achieve this goal, the 27 member states of the European Union clearly need to pay first. The investment will reach up to 811 billion euros. The vast majority (706 billion) of this will be used for renewable energy, while the remaining (105 billion) will be used for deploying heat pumps.
This plan is expensive compared to the current plan with an estimated cost of 299 billion euros. But Oxford Sustainable Finance Group pointed out: "We expect that replacing Russian natural gas with green technology will save 238 billion euros in operating expenses over the next 30 years, almost 50% of the additional investment required." Even better, "under reasonable assumptions about natural gas prices, we estimate that this proportion can reach as high as 92%.
Laurence Tibiana, CEO of the European Climate Fund, pointed out: "This analysis emphasizes that renewable energy and energy efficiency are not a distant dream, but a quick, safe, and ethical way to get rid of expensive Russian natural gas. Therefore, policymakers should accelerate their steps in several areas: reducing the approval time for renewable energy deployment, developing these departments, and conducting large-scale training.
The report also focuses on four countries (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain), which vary greatly in their dependence on Russian natural gas. France will try to replace Russian natural gas in heating by 2026, but it will be replaced in the electricity structure after that. The situation in Germany is exactly the opposite: the electricity structure will change in 2027, while the heating system will change in 2030. Therefore, "Germany should actively deploy heat pumps" and increase investment in wind power.
As for Italy, "if the country can raise its current low target in onshore wind power," it can completely rid itself of Russian natural gas by 2028. Spain will achieve this goal one year earlier, in 2027, without relying on offshore wind power. The report clearly states: "Due to the country's low dependence on Russian natural gas and a warmer climate, heating demand is structurally low
But an uncertain factor still exists: will the EU demonstrate enough 'courage and ambition' to persevere to the end? The European Energy Supply Adjustment Plan proposed by the European Commission a year ago was equivalent to setting a roadmap, and must now be firmly implemented.
