The recent surge in international rice prices has caused global concern. According to data released recently by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the global rice price index has risen to 129.7 in July, the highest in nearly 12 years. So why are global food prices continuing to rise?
What are the reasons for the continued high international food prices?
Wang Xiaohui, chief analyst of the National Grain and Oil Information Center: The main factor of the rise in international rice prices is from India, India is the world's largest rice exporter, in July 20 this year, the Indian government issued restrictions on non-Basmati white rice exports, which led to the market for the future international rice supply has a nervous expectation.
Why would India, the world's largest rice exporter, ban exports of rice except steamed and basmati?
Qian Jingfei, researcher of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: The World Meteorological Organization announced that from July this year, the global El Nino phenomenon. In this case, due to the influence of El Nino, many countries have announced a ban on rice exports, in order to safeguard their domestic market supply and mitigate the rise in their domestic market prices.
Could a global rice crisis turn into a global food crisis? From this table of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Food price index of agricultural products, we can see that the global grain price index has continued to fall since October 2022, especially the price of corn, sorghum and other coarse grains, which account for more than 50% of global grain production, has continued to fall. Looking at other food prices related to People's Daily consumption, the price index of dairy products, meat products and sugar released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization also fell in July. Under normal circumstances, if there is a food crisis, the prices of these commodities will rise.
Wang Xiaohui, chief analyst of the National Grain and Oil Information Center: From the perspective of future development, we can also see that the FAO's forecast for the new annual global cereal production has exceeded 2.8 billion tons for the first time, of which rice production has increased year-on-year, and soybean production has exceeded 400 million tons for the first time, which also shows that the overall supply form in the future is still relatively optimistic.
