Grain prices suffered a mild to moderate setback in overnight trading but bounced back in Tuesday's session as more bullish demand signals materialized. Corn prices led the charge after another large sale to Mexico was announced this morning, finishing the session with gains exceeding 1.5%. Soybeans firmed more than 1%, meantime, with most wheat contracts up around 0.5%.
Rains will be possible across part of the central U.S. between Wednesday and Saturday. Parts of northern Illinois and eastern Iowa have the best chance to see as much as 0.5" or more later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA's new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for most of the Midwest and Plains between October 29 and November 4, with much warmer-than-usual temperatures for the eastern half of the country.
On Wall St., the Dow trended 55 points higher in afternoon trading to 42,986, although there were some investor concerns over the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yields hitting three-month highs today. Energy futures found noticeable gains, with crude oil up 2.25% this afternoon to $72 per barrel. Diesel and gasoline each rose around 2.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+14,000), soybeans (+8,000), soymeal (+4,000), soyoil (+3,500) and CBOT wheat (+2,500).
Corn
Corn prices faded lower in overnight trading but moved back into the green following a large sale to Mexico announced this morning. December futures rose 7 cents to $4.1650, with March futures up 6.25 cents to $4.2950.
Corn basis bids improved 3 cents at an Ohio elevator and 3 cents at an Indiana ethanol plant while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 14.2 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year, which began September 1.
Nearly all of the 2024 corn crop (98%) is now fully mature, up from 94% a week ago. That's also a bit ahead of 2023's pace of 97% and the prior five-year average of 95%. Harvest progress reached 65% through Sunday, up from 47% in the prior week and favorable to the average trade guess of 63%. That puts this season's pace well ahead of 2023's mark of 55% and the prior five-year average of 52%.
Should growers be worried about breakeven prices this season? Are breakeven prices even possible? These are two important questions that grain market analyst Bryce Knorr addressed in a recent Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Meantime, if you're interested in improving cash flow, farm business consultant Mike Downey offers some strategies that can infuse liquidity into your balance sheet to manage expenses when input costs are high. Downey walks through several pointers in the latest More than Dirt blog – click here to learn more.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2024/25 marketing year are trending 7% above last year's pace so far after reaching 239.0 million bushels through October 20. Ukraine, the United States, Brazil, Canada and Serbia were the top five suppliers.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 394,310 contracts.
Soybeans
Soybean prices pushed more than 1% higher following a round of technical buying in a somewhat choppy session on Tuesday, capturing double-digit gains in the process. November futures rose 11.25 cents to $9.9225, with January futures up 11.5 cents to $10.0125.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. January soymeal futures eased fractionally lower, while January soyoil futures jumped more than 3% higher.
Soybean basis bids climbed 5 to 10 cents higher at three Midwestern processors while dropping 4 cents at an Ohio elevator and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Soybean harvest progress moved from 67% completion a week ago up to 81% through Sunday. That was equal to the average analyst estimate, and it's faster than 2023's pace of 72% and the prior five-year average of 67%.
European Union soybean imports during the 2024/25 marketing year are trending slightly ahead of last year's pace so far after reaching 137.1 million bushels through October 20.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 381,750 contracts.
Wheat
Wheat prices found moderate gains after following a broad set of other commodities higher on Tuesday, closing with gains of around 0.5%. December Chicago SRW futures added 3.75 cents to $5.76, December Kansas City HRW futures added 3.75 cents to $5.86, and December MGEX spring wheat futures picked up 2.75 cents to $6.1675.
Winter wheat plantings moved from 64% last week up to 73% through Sunday. That was slightly below the average estimate of 77% but still within the range of trade guesses. It's also a bit slower than 2023's pace of 74% and the prior five-year average of 76%.
Wheat prices jumped almost $1 per bushel higher in September, but what are the prospects moving forward? "Looking at wheat prices for the coming weeks, the potential for moderate price action seems likely," according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. "Supply and demand fundamentals are relatively balanced, with prices seeming to be stabilizing until a fresh piece of fundamental news unfolds." Blohm digs into some other important trends in yesterday's Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2024/25 marketing year have faded 30% lower year-over-year so far after reaching 257.9 million bushels through October 20. Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, the United Kingdom and Algeria were the top five destinations. EU barley exports are down 40% year-over-year after reaching 73.9 million bushels over the same period.
Tunisia purchased 4.6 million bushels of soft wheat, possibly sourced from Bulgaria, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment in November and December.
Jordan passed on all eight offers in its international tender to purchase 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closed earlier today. Jordan is likely to issue a similar tender that will close on October 29.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 115,432 contracts.
