Foreign media, Sept. 29: Severe frosts threatened fields in southern and southeastern Australia, which pre-occupy more than 10 percent of the country's wheat production, fueling fears of a drought in the west.
Temperatures reached minus 2 degrees Celsius this month on nearly 1.2 million hectares of wheat fields, most of which are in New South Wales, according to Melbourne-based Digital Agricultural Services (DAS). The frosts have been particularly damaging to mature wheat, which is in the final stages of growth before harvest. The Australian wheat harvest usually begins in November.
The company's chief scientist, Sam Atkinson, said wheat production in these areas was initially forecast at 3.2 million tons, but is now estimated to be down 10 to 60 percent. Quality will also decline. Atkinson warns, however, that the specifics cannot be determined until harvest begins.
Although the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources, Economics and Science (ABARES) recently forecast Australian wheat production to reach 31.8 million tons, Atkinson said a drought in the west and recent frosts in the south and southeast could result in production falling to less than 29 million tons. Reduced wheat supplies in the country could fuel concerns about global stocks. The USDA now forecasts global wheat stocks to fall to a nine-year low in 2024/25.
Australian farmers also confirmed heavy crop damage from the frost. One farmer said the crop had already been affected by drought in recent months, and last week's frost caused wheat heads to freeze, leaving estimated yields 25% lower than earlier expected. Other farmers have had to sell their wheat as hay because the frost caused the entire wheat stem to freeze, killing the crop.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said more frost was due to hit the Murrayland region of South Australia on Friday morning, as well as some southern areas such as New South Wales.
Atkinson said 350,000 hectares of barley farmland, which is expected to produce about 1 million tons of barley, and 540,000 hectares of canola fields, which are expected to produce 1.25 million tons of canola, were also affected by the frost.
