With the recent performance of urea more and more "eye-catching", the fertilizer market has finally opened a new situation, and the improvement of the domestic raw material situation has also led to the hot compound fertilizer market. Recent downstream to take goods significantly increased, local freight slightly tense, as of now, compound fertilizer companies do not dare to easily introduce prices, and some companies have stopped receiving orders, if urea to maintain the current good momentum, compound fertilizer autumn market will turn against the wind, break the first half of the lack of sales.
Fertilizer seasons in the north and south coincide, and urea supply is tight
Recently, urea prices and a slight rise in the trend, due to South China, southwest equipment maintenance, local supply is tight, urea prices generally rose 30 to 50 yuan/ton, July domestic urea market monthly average price of 2278 yuan/ton, up 5.82%, the highest price within the month of 2340 yuan/ton. It is understood that the average daily output of China's urea plant in July was 16.00 million tons, a decrease of 3.90% from the previous month. In July, as the weather turned hot, the demand in some areas entered the off-season, the maintenance situation increased, and the supply reduction formed more support for urea prices, which in the early ten days of South China and Southwest agricultural demand overlapping period, the local urea plant maintenance, deepening the local supply shortage.
The head of the Marketing Department of Kingenta analyzed that there are two reasons for the current rise in urea prices, one is that rice and cash crop fertilizer follow-up in July has become the main factor supporting the price of mid-early July. The specific impact is reflected in two aspects: First, because of the drought in the South this year, the time of fertilizer use in the southwest in summer has been delayed, forming the coincidence of fertilizer seasons in the southwest and South China in mid-early July, and the main source of goods comes from the southwest, northwest and central China. The coincidence of seasons leads to the concentration of demand in the southwest and South China, driving the increase of market demand in the north, forming a local driving the overall situation. Is one of the main drivers of rising prices; The second is that traders and dealers maintain low inventory operation this year, and the rigid demand for agriculture in the stage is followed alternately, which alleviates the downward amplitude of the procurement interval in Southwest and South China.
Phosphate fertilizer market weakened, supply and demand fell
After entering June, the downstream procurement of ammonium raw materials decreased, the market bearish mentality increased, the inventory pressure of enterprises rose sharply, the operating rate decreased, and the situation of supply and demand fell. Since July, grassroots procurement has stagnated, coupled with the decline in raw material prices, cost support has weakened, parking and maintenance enterprises have increased, and market prices have decreased significantly. Monoammonium market price dropped to 2470 yuan/ton, diammonium market price dropped to 3620 yuan/ton.
In terms of sulfur, the average price of sulfur at the port was 807 yuan/ton, down 72.95% from the same period last year. In the case of poor demand, the situation of oversupply continues to continue, the bearish sulfur market dominates, and the price is under pressure. In the first half of the year, the price of phosphate rock rose first and then fell, and the price of 28 grade phosphate rock to the factory was about 1100 yuan/ton. As of July, the price has fallen by nearly 300 yuan/ton. Later, with the recovery of demand for phosphate fertilizer, the price of phosphate ore is expected to gradually rise.
Internationally, affected by tight supply, the international diammonium price rose slightly, and the FOB diammonium export price rose to $431 / ton from $420 / ton last week. U.S. mono-ammonium phosphate climbed from 460-470 U.S. dollars/ton FOB last week to 475 to 525 U.S. dollars/ton, the highest level since early May.
Strong willingness to support potash price
Recently, the price of potassium chloride has gradually stabilized, only a few high-end compensate for the fall, and the current price of 62% white potassium is more than 2350~2400 yuan/ton; Border trade high-end Shouting price has returned to about 2250 yuan/ton, but for the time being basically out of stock; The official arrival price of domestic potassium is tentatively set at 2400 yuan/ton, and the current arrival price of domestic potassium on the market is more than 2300~2400 yuan/ton. For potassium sulfate, prices continued to hold firm. Mannheim potassium sulfate device operating rate has been quickly restored to 60%, the current profit margin of the enterprise is considerable, 52% of all water soluble powder factory prices in 3100~3200 yuan/ton, the local market in the early low-end prices have risen slightly.
Compound fertilizer has rising conditions
In late July, the industrial and agricultural demand of the urea market entered the handover stage, and the construction of compound fertilizer continued to recover, and farmers in various regions needed to finish one after another. Compared with the same period last year, the start of the compound fertilizer market this autumn is slightly slow, and the downstream stocking sentiment is also more cautious, mainly because the future market is unclear. The current momentum of urea is good, whether from the perspective of domestic supply and demand factors, or the international positive factors, urea has positive conditions for continued rise in the short term. Although ammonium phosphate in the domestic off-season, but exports continue to improve, with Brazil, the United States demand, diammonium export prices still have the opportunity to rise, will also drive autumn phosphate fertilizer prices rise. Therefore, in the long run, the market of compound fertilizer should still be full of confidence. Because the downstream raw materials have a lag effect on the price of compound fertilizer, the compound fertilizer can not see a rapid rise in a short time. In summary, although the price of raw materials has fluctuated, it will not be as large as in the first half of the year, and the price of compound fertilizer will be introduced one after another.
