Contributing writer David Li offers a snapshot of current price trends for key herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides in the Chinese agrochemical market in his China Price Index. Below he also discusses how glyphosate prices are rebounding amid tighter supply, why glufosinate struggles with weak demand and regulation shifts, and other key trends shaping 2025 buying decisions for agrochemicals.
Purchasing decisions are almost impossible to make at price bottom, and more realistically, buying behavior occurs before or after price turning points. As buyers, we only need to recognize where was the true turning points.
Recently, volatility on the supply side of pesticides is increasing in China. In terms of basic raw materials, pyridine supply tension continues. Downstream pesticide producers have been concentrating on stocking up in stages, resulting in a certain scheduling tension for pyridine downstream products. Therefore, the price of pyridine downstream pesticide active ingredient is showing a U-shaped stabilization trend. For example, the current price of paraquat is under high-cost pressure, so the mainstream paraquat producers scheduling production basically to the end of July.
From August 2025, China's domestic stockpiling and northern hemisphere purchases in the second half of the year may positively impact paraquat offers. China's plant capacity may lag behind overseas demand and affect paraquat supply in the 2025/2026 purchasing season, which is expected to face steadily higher prices as paraquat supply is mainly dominated by even production. August may be the best time for overseas customers to stockpile paraquat raw material in China. By the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, when China's winter stockpile overlaid with North America's demand occurs at the same time, China's paraquat AI EXW price may return to 2.5 USD/Kg level.
The bromine market is running relatively stable. The supply of bromine is affected by the stage of environmental protection inspections, and the market inventory is under some pressure. However, the long-term capacity release is still relatively optimistic. Some downstream products are entering the off-season, especially the purchasing season in South America is coming to an end before the end of July, so the market transaction atmosphere is light. This is also the main reason why the price of diquat has stabilized after a period of tension for exporting.
In addition to the impact of upstream raw materials on Chinese AI prices, Chinese pesticide companies are generally adjusting their operation rates in 2025. This is increasing the likelihood of higher prices for the supply market. A new balance between supply and demand is gradually taking shape.
Glyphosate prices in China have shown an upward trend in the recent past. This is mainly due to the reduction of inventory in the supply market and the concentrated release of demand in South America. Brazilian buyers have shifted from just-in-time purchases to one-time purchases of large quantity. This has had a significant impact on Chinese glyphosate producers. The supply-side scheduling has led to a gradual pullback in China's glyphosate prices from February 2025 after bottoming out. Glyphosate prices are expected to remain in a stable price pullback until August.
