From the changes in inventory of shipping companies, it can be inferred that there are preliminary signs of a rebound in global trade, and emerging markets and North America will become the most promising markets for upward growth. However, the path of global trade and economic recovery is not smooth sailing. The IMF reminds that if trade is to become an engine of economic growth again, it is necessary to create trade corridors and opportunities.
Ke Wensheng, CEO of Maersk Group, a shipping giant, recently stated that there are preliminary signs of a rebound in global trade, and the economic outlook for next year is also relatively optimistic. The upcoming demand rebound will be driven by consumption, rather than just a simple "inventory adjustment".
The shipping company has previously stated that due to the warehouse being filled with "unwanted goods", consumer confidence has been undermined, the supply chain has been severely affected, and overall demand is weak. However, despite the difficult economic environment, emerging markets still show significant resilience.
Ke Wensheng stated that currently, these situations have all been alleviated. All problems are spontaneous and self improving, which means demand is rebounding. It is expected that emerging markets and North America will become the most promising markets for upward growth
Taking South Korea, which is highly sensitive to global economic warming and is known as the "canary" of trade, as an example, South Korean exports have slightly rebounded recently. Previously, South Korea's exports suffered a major blow, with exports declining for 11 consecutive months. However, the export decline in August narrowed. According to data released by the South Korean government, South Korean exports in August decreased by 8.4% compared to the same period last year, while economists predict a decrease of 11.8%. Meanwhile, the decrease was also lower than the 16.5% in July.
The path of global trade and economic recovery is not smooth sailing. On the one hand, global economic activity is still constrained by rising interest rates. Currently, global inflation is still high, and global central banks are likely to continue to fight inflation in the future by exerting pressure on demand through restrictive monetary policies.
On the other hand, global trade barriers and fragmentation are impacting global economic growth. The President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Georgieva, stated that since 2019, the number of new trade barrier policies introduced by countries each year has almost tripled, reaching nearly 3000 last year. Other forms of fragmentation, such as technological decoupling, disruption of capital flows, and immigration restrictions, will also drive up costs.
In recent years, some countries such as the United States have used so-called national security and ideology as pretexts to implement anti globalization measures such as decoupling, chain disconnection, friend shore outsourcing, and nearshore outsourcing, which have seriously damaged the stability of global industrial and supply chains. This not only has a significant impact on production and life of various countries, but also increases the uncertainty of economic recovery. According to the World Economic Forum, in the second half of this year, geopolitical and economic relations between major economies will continue to be unstable and have a significant impact on the supply chain, especially with the possibility of more shocks to the supply of key products.
According to the latest IMF forecast, the annual growth rate of global GDP will be only 3% by 2028. Georgieva said, "If we want trade to become an engine of economic growth again, then we must create trade corridors and opportunities
