As of the U.S. stock market close on November 14, the world's largest potash producer Nutrien Ltd of Canada. Shares rose 3.68 percent, with Legg Mason, one of the world's largest potash and phosphate producers, up more than 4 percent, Israel Chemical, the world's sixth largest potash producer, up 8.51 percent, and American potash company Dauntrex Inc. up more than 9.13 percent. At the same time, it also stimulated the stock price of domestic potash companies, Salt Lake shares, potassium International, Zangge Mining, Oriental Tower stock prices have risen in different ranges.
From the perspective of the international market, due to multiple factors such as extreme weather and geopolitical turbulence, the global production and trade flow of cereals and oilseeds remain highly tense. Recently, with the expansion of soybean acreage in Brazil, the demand for fertilizer will also increase in the fourth quarter. Southeast Asia, represented by Indonesia and Malaysia, has entered the bidding season for palm plantations, which will promote the demand for potash in the international market.
Recently, the above-mentioned potash giant companies have also disclosed three quarterly reports, maintaining the growth expectations for the future agricultural demand and potash market. Nutrien said weather and geopolitical issues continue to impact global grain and oilseed production and trade flows, resulting in tight inventories. New crop corn and soybean prices have come under some seasonal pressure recently, but are still 10 to 15 percent above their 10-year averages. The global stocks-to-use ratio for cereals and oilseeds is expected to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future, Mosaic said. Current positive agricultural developments and favorable crop prices incentivize growers to maximize yields. After two years of underapplication of fertilizer, growers are looking to replenish the soil. In most of the world's major growing regions, stocks of potash and phosphate have been depleted and will need to be replenished in 2024.
From the perspective of the domestic market, it is currently in the winter storage stage, the recent fertilizer cycle in 12-January winter wax fertilizer, followed by the Spring Festival before and after 2-3 months of green fertilizer, fertilizer demand continues to be strong, the three main fertilizers nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are performing well. After the price of potash fertilizer was lowered in the first half of this year, the market was in a wait-and-see mood, downstream dealers did not dare to stock, and after the recovery of potash demand in the third quarter, the buyer's right to speak was strengthened, and several rounds of prices rose sharply. From the recent performance point of view, the price of potash fertilizer still remains high, the price of large particles in individual ports is raised by 50 yuan/ton, low-cost supply is difficult to inquire, 60% of the crystal market price is more than 2850-2880 yuan/ton, the future price or continue to rise.
