Grain production is the foundation of the national economy, and corn, as one of the three major grain crops in China, is the cereal crop with the widest planting range and the highest yield, and also the first major feedstuff, which occupies an important position in China's agricultural production and economic development.
China's corn harvest area perennially ranked first in the world; production is second only to the United States; corn consumption ranked No. 2 in the world, of which, the consumption of corn for feeding ranked first in the world, in order to meet the needs of the domestic consumer market, a large number of imports of corn each year, the net import trend is obvious. China's corn consumption mainly includes four parts, namely, feed consumption, processing consumption, edible consumption and seed and other consumption. In recent years, with the growth of feed demand, as well as the development of the corn deep-processing industry, led to the rapid growth of corn demand.
Since 2019, corn prices have risen sharply as the supply-demand gap has become apparent and the national regulatory tools have been on a weakening trend, compounded by the impact of the new Crown pneumonia epidemic, the obvious global inflation expectations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At present, China's corn prices show a trend of overall stability and phased upward and downward changes.
1.The planted area has remained at around 650 million mu for three consecutive years
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, China's corn planted area reached 663,283,500 mu (about 663 million mu), an increase of 2.67% compared with 2022; compared with the 619,488,200 mu in 2013, an increase of 43,795,300 mu in the past 10 years, an increase of about 7.07%, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 0.69%
Since 2016, by the country canceled the corn temporary storage policy and in the ″sickle curve″ area to implement ″grain to feed″ policy and other factors, corn overcapacity, planting area showed a downward trend year by year. 2020, by the epidemic and the African swine fever after the restoration of livestock and poultry production capacity of the demand for feed corn pull and other factors, in order to protect the supply, the guiding principle of the policy became ″stabilize the ration, stabilize the soybean, expand the corn″, domestic corn planting willingness to improve, and the fluctuation of the area increased. Soybeans, expanding corn ″, domestic corn planting willingness to improve, planting area fluctuations increased.
Output has remained above 270 million tons for three consecutive years.
With the increase of corn planting area, China's corn production also grows, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's corn production in 2023 reached 288.842 million tons (about 289 million tons), a year-on-year growth of 4.2%; compared with 248.4532 million tons in 2013, an increase of 40.388 million tons in the past 10 years, an increase of about 16.26%, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 1.52%.
2. Corn price trend analysis
The planting area of corn in the new season, the input replenishment capacity of imported grains, changes in demand from downstream industries and relevant policies at the macroeconomic level will all become important factors dominating the price changes in the corn market and even changing the phase trend.
Since 2020, with the supply-demand gap manifested, the national regulatory means is weakening trend, superimposed on the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global inflation expectations are obvious and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other factors, corn prices rose sharply. Influenced by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and policies, corn price trends show frequent fluctuations.After 2023, domestic corn market conditions show a trend from strong to weak, with a general decline in price levels.
3.Net profit per mu has stabilized significantly in the past two years
According to the data of "National Agricultural Products Cost and Benefit Information Compilation", affected by market fluctuations and other factors, since 2010, China's corn ″net profit per mu″ mainly in ″2015~2019 years″ presents a continuous loss status and the amount of loss is much higher than that of the U.S. (the gap of the loss ranges from 68.51~221.14 yuan); 2021, China's corn average per mu Beginning in 2021, China's average per-mu corn ″net profit″ once again returned to profitability, but between 2021 and 2022 the growth rate slowed down again, the overall stabilizing trend is obvious and the gap with the United States profitability amount shows a year-on-year growth trend.
In 2022, China's average ″net profit″ per acre for corn will be $163.25 - an increase of $1.18, or about 0.73%, compared to $162.07 in 2021; and a difference of $110.63 from the U.S. average ″net profit″ per acre for corn in 2022 ($273.88).
